原标题:何平:美国紧缩行动会如何置世界经济于风险之中?
中新财经5月25日电 题:【睿看美国】何平:美国紧缩行动会如何置世界经济于风险之中?
作者 清华大学经济管理学院副院长、金融系教授何平
高通胀和经济增速疲软的两片乌云正笼罩着美国大地。而美联储的应对之举——加息和缩表,却很难兼顾控制通胀及股市泡沫的需要和保持经济增长的目标。
对于美国来说,能否如愿实现经济“软着陆”仍然存疑;而对于全球经济来说,美国的紧缩行动正给世界带来更多风险和挑战。
紧缩政策加速美国资产泡沫破裂
疫情初期,美国曾推行量化宽松政策,导致美元流动性大幅增加。然而,由于彼时经济放缓的主因是疫情扰动供给侧受限,过度印钞对并没有产生预期中的经济刺激作用,反而诱发了一发不可收拾的高通胀率和资产泡沫。2022年3月,美国CPI增幅一度达到8.5%,创下40年来新高。
今年以来,面对飙升的价格指数和民众的反对意见,尽管经济尚未彻底恢复,美国不得不启动加息政策,甚至上调利率50个基点,创下22年来的最高记录。
自5月宣布加息50个基点的第二日,美国资产泡沫大幅缩水,美股连续多日跳水暴跌,紧缩政策的“副作用”逐渐显现。
这也反映出,现有政策很难兼顾控制通胀及股市泡沫的需要和保持经济增长的目标。
事实上,美国目前所处的内外部经济环境也不利于其控制通胀。从内部来看,美国还未找到新的、强劲的经济增长点,经济复苏动力受限。
从外部来看,美国对中国等国家的商品加征关税,导致美国进口的外国产品价格被推高。此外,受到疫情和国际政治因素影响,在货币收缩过程中,其他经济体承担美国政策负外部性的能力也有所下降。
考虑到这些因素,美国经济能否平稳走出泥沼尚未可知。
未来,美国无疑会权衡经济对紧缩政策的耐受力和控制通胀的目标,进行政策调整。但可以肯定的是,抑制通胀仍是美国短期内的首要任务。当然,如果加息和缩表对经济造成巨大的冲击,如股票跌超预期、失业率大幅飙升,美联储就不得不考虑重新评估政策,放缓加息的脚步。
紧缩行动置世界经济于风险之中
一方面,在现有的国际货币体系架构下,美国加息会导致大量国际金融机构将会把流动性撤回美国,造成全球流动性的缺失,冲击世界金融市场。加上此前的量化宽松政策,“一松一紧”之间,他国资产贬值,美国则“收割”世界。
另一方面,在美国加息的背景下,不少经济体为维持平衡,选择跟随美国推行紧缩政策,再叠加当前疫情对经济复苏的不利影响,这些经济体的经济增长面临更大难度。
更令人担忧的是,如果美国不能实现“软着陆”,出现经济危机,世界经济也将被置于巨大的风险之中。
不过,机遇往往与风险并存。 在美联储加息的背景下,新兴经济体如果能采用相对独立的货币政策维系经济平稳运行,可以避免全球同涨同跌,规避系统性风险,为世界经济稳定作出更大的贡献。
以中国为例,中国目前推行“以我为主”的货币政策,有助于中国经济保持独立平稳运行,也为世界经济提供更多避险空间。(完)
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