投资者终于度过了10多年来股市最糟糕的一年,松了一口气,但现在,高昂的股价估值和不断萎缩的盈利仍阻碍着大型科技公司迅速反弹。虽然市盈率已从疫情期间的峰值回落,但许多市场上的知名公司看起来仍很昂贵。与此同时,由于美联储大举加息以抗击通胀,企业利润前景正在走弱,美国经济可能走向衰退。
科技公司的关键业务也面临风险,比如(AAPL.US) iPhone的供应受限,以及母公司Alphabet(GOOG.US)和Meta Platforms(META.US)等公司在线广告业务疲软。其次,由于企业支出的放缓可能意味着云计算趋势的减弱,而(AMZN.US)业绩的主要推动力——云计算业务也将受到影响,这也是集团在下调(MSFT.US)评级时提到的一个风险。
疲弱的经济背景和不稳定的基本面共同表明,作为股价主要推动因素的企业盈利可能令人失望。上周,科技行业领头羊公布的Q4利润同比下降了69%,出现了十多年来的最大降幅。
DataTrek Research联合创始人Nicholas Colas在谈到大型科技公司时表示:“这些公司的基本面没有改善,而且在不断恶化,要想让成长型股票发挥作用,你就必然希望看到基本面和估值有所改善,而我们目前还没有看到这一点,这就很难支持估值倍数扩张。”
以科技股为主的100指数去年下跌了33%,为2008年以来最大年度跌幅。而在未来几周,企业将公布第四季度业绩,这将是一个关键考验。投资者担心,这些报告和展望可能会突显出疲弱宏观经济背景将冲击需求,这是导致亚马逊、Meta和(CRM.US)等公司大规模裁员的一个因素。
媒体数据显示,华尔街预计今年美股科技板块的收益将下降2.2%,而标普500指数的收益将增长2%。在过去几个月里,这一共识预期大幅下降——9月底,市场预计科技公司的收益将在2023年增长4.7%;而且许多人预计分析师将进一步下调他们的预期。如果市场确实下调了预期,这便会降低市盈率的分母,从而使股票看起来更昂贵,可能会导致更大的抛售压力。
标普500指数科技板块的市盈率仍为20.1倍,高于18.9倍的10年平均水平,也高于标普500指数整体水平的17倍。苹果市盈率仍高于其长期平均水平,而微软市盈率仅略低于自身长期水平;这两家公司占标普500指数总权重的11%左右。
在4家最大的超大型股中,Alphabet是唯一一家市盈率低于整体市场水平的公司。而Meta股价去年下跌64%后,投资者的情况一直在好转。这一下跌使该Facebook母公司市盈率从几年前的28倍降至12倍,使其成为纳斯达克100指数中最便宜的股票之一。包括裁员1.1万多人在内的大幅成本削减措施已帮助该公司股价较去年11月的低点上涨46%。
不过,Winslow Capital Management投资组合经理Patrick Burton指出,市场尚未消化公司盈利衰退的影响,他相信这种情况今年就会发生。他说:“在这种环境下,投资者对盈利能力不足、经济增长放缓、盈利或业绩指引疲弱的宽容程度将会降低。大型科技公司已经成功了很长时间,但现在,如果一只被广泛持有的股票正在经历增长减速,这就是一个问题。目前的估值水平如此之高,任何坏消息都会引发抛售。”
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